A Female Was Reported Missing in the Area. The Family of the Missing Woman Was Wealthy

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Racial and gender differences in missing children's recovery chances

  • Arnout van de Rijt,
  • Hyang-Gi Song,
  • Eran Shor,
  • Rebekah Burroway

PLOS

x

  • Published: December 31, 2018
  • https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0207742

Abstract

Nosotros inquire whether there are race and gender differences in the recovery of missing children. We argue that race and gender differences may arise due to differential media attending, socio-economic background and police resource. Datasets used in previous research lack the representativeness and longitudinal graphic symbol necessary for probing victim demographic effects on recovery success. Here we use official New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services records of all children reported missing in the period 2007–2010 containing exact dates of disappearance and recovery. In result-history analysis of these data we discover that missing boys and girls take comparable daily recovery chances. Blackness children, nonetheless, on boilerplate remain missing longer and are more probable to yet exist missing by the end of our observation period than non-blackness children.

Introduction

Law enforcement agencies entered a total of 464,324 missing children reports into the 2017 database of the U.Due south. National Crime Information Center [ane, 2]. Some of these children were abducted by a family member, acquaintance or stranger, while others were lost considering they wandered off, were accidentally left behind, or ran away [ii]. Although most children who become missing in the U.Southward. are ultimately located and returned home, each year thousands remain unrecovered.

We ask if the race and gender of missing children are associated with their daily recovery chances. To the best of our knowledge, this report is the get-go to ask and investigate this question. There are three reasons to suspect racial and gender differences in recovery chances. Outset, previous studies accept constitute race and gender differences in the likelihood and intensity of media coverage and public attending, with non-African-American girls receiving a disproportionate share [3–12]. If media coverage positively impacts recovery chances, we would expect non-African-American girls to be more speedily found, all else equal. Second, some minority children, in particular African-American children, are more than likely to come up from socio-economically disadvantaged families and neighborhoods [13], which may limit resources available to parents and law enforcement for recovery efforts. Third, some have found legally irrelevant factors such every bit victim race and gender to nonetheless impact constabulary responses [fourteen]. In missing children cases, such variable responses could translate into variable recovery rates.

A quantitative assessment of the furnishings of race and gender on recovery rates requires a representative sample of missing children cases with data on disappearance and recovery dates so that length of disappearance tin can be accounted for. By studies have used national FBI statistics on numbers of missing children cases, which lack this temporal information on disappearance and recovery. Moreover, FBI statistics used in past studies lump together many kinds of missing children cases, the vast bulk of which are runaways. Hither we draw on a comprehensive dataset confidentially shared with the authors by the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services containing for all missing children cases data on disappearance and recovery timing, gender and race, and case type (runaway, lost, or abduction).

Theory

We propose three theoretical mechanisms through which missing children's race and gender may impact their recovery chances. The purpose of this theory section is not to identify competing mechanisms for empirical testing, but rather to base of operations the expectation of racial and gender differences in prior literature and theory.

Machinery 1: Disproportionate public attention to missing white girls

One mechanism through which some missing children may exist more than readily institute is media coverage. Missing children are often featured in the news because such stories provoke emotional responses toward those who are viewed equally pure and innocent victims. However, public interest in missing children and media coverage of their cases are highly unequally distributed. Certain famous incidents receive national and even international attention for months on stop, while others are entirely ignored [5–eight].

An all-encompassing torso of enquiry suggests that disparities in media coverage are patterned co-ordinate to social categories such as ethnicity and race [15–19], gender [twenty–34], faith [35–37], and sexuality [38–40]. A general finding is that in each of these categories minorities receive less coverage. However, while likewise women are generally underrepresented in the media, some have found women to be covered more extensively when they are victims [31, 41–43]. Scholars have theoretically accommodated this reversal in terms of chivalry and paternalistic attitudes of journalists and audiences: Women are extended more compassion and attending because of their presumed weakness and need for protection [44, 45].

Racial and gender disparities in news coverage take as well been identified in various studies for the specific case of missing children. This enquiry is informed past the "missing white girl syndrome" theorize that media classify disproportionate fourth dimension and resources to the coverage of missing white girls, anticipating greater public involvement in these cases [3, v]. Several studies place big coverage differences consistent with this hypothesis amongst small, not-representative samples of missing women [4, 6, 7, 9]. [8] carry out a large-scale test of the hypothesis using FBI data on missing children. They compare the percentages of black, not-black, male, and female person missing children to the corresponding percentages of children who are featured in evening newscast reports. They discover that non-black children are indeed significantly more probable to receive coverage than non-white children. Missing girls, on the other hand, are less likely to exist in the news than missing boys. The finding of [8] for race is later replicated in [10] using alternative statistics on missing children. However, [10] detect neither under- nor over-representation of girls in media coverage. [46] compare percentages of boy and daughter abductions in the 1999 National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway and Thrownaway Children with percentages in newspapers and exercise not find meaning differences in the frequencies of articles almost abducted girls and boys either, but practice find that articles on female abductions of girls tend to be longer. [11] compares FBI statistics to coverage data from 4 major news websites and finds significant bias in favor of white and female missing persons, consequent with the missing white girl syndrome. Another study finds that missing children in Louisiana take more and longer articles written about them if they are white and female person, providing further back up for the hypothesis [12]. Overall and so, the evidence conspicuously shows that missing white children receive more coverage, while the evidence regarding the role of gender is mixed.

Racial and gender differences in news coverage of missing children may translate into differential recovery efforts by the public and police force enforcement, or in differential success of those efforts [3, 5, 8, 10, 12]. In [v] the Department of Justice is quoted stating that "Intense, early on media coverage ensures that people will be looking for your kid". The notion that police recovery efforts are more effective with greater news coverage is reinforced in interviews with constabulary officers [47].

Mechanism 2: Socio-economic background atmospheric condition resource available for recovery

Prominent examples of missing children are characterized not just by extraordinarily all-encompassing media coverage just as well by the very wealthy families from which they were separated [48]. Resource of parents, neighborhood, and police to mobilize search efforts may improve recovery chances. Such resources volition covary with the race of missing children, with African-Americans having the least. Black households in the Us in 2010 had a median income of 32,000 in contrast to a median income of 53,000 amid non-blackness households, with 27% of black households living in poverty compared to fourteen% not-blacks [xiii].

In addition, the scope and effectiveness of police efforts may be expected to be greater in rich neighborhoods, which tend to exist predominantly white. Poorer neighborhoods tend to have higher crime rates [49] and rates of police misconduct vary with poverty and racial composition of neighborhoods [50]. In addition, missing children from wealthy families may receive more all-encompassing law attention because of parents' greater power to compel police to dedicate time and endeavour, through donations, network connections to those deciding on promotions, or other forms of power employ.

Resource for recovery will exist comparable for missing boys and girls, as socio-economic background does non covary with gender. Therefore, this theoretical mechanism does not suggest a gender difference in recovery rates of missing children.

Mechanism 3: Race- and gender-dependent law enforcement responses

Conflict theories of crime [51–54] and beliefs of constabulary theory [55, 56] suggest that police responses to crimes depend on legally irrelevant features of victims such race and gender. The stratification hypothesis derived from Black's behavior of law theory [55] is that the "amount of police" individuals receive is positively determined by their status in society. Applied to missing children, the prediction becomes that law enforcement places less effort in the recovery of girls and black children than that of boys and white children.

The empirical literature on stratification in crime finds some back up that cases with blackness and other minority victims are less rigorously pursued. [57] reports that in sexual attack cases involving black offenders and white victims the offender received more than serious charges, longer sentences, and college rates of felony case filings, executed sentences, and land penitentiary incarceration, simply did not involve higher arrest rates or percentages found guilty. [58] finds in a national survey that law respond more than apace and exert more effort in robberies and cases of aggravated attack involving white victims and blackness perpetrators. [59] finds that in survey data that police response times in assault, robbery and rape cases is shorter when victims are white and follow-up effort is more extensive. In two large studies of homicide cases, clearance is found more than likely when the victim is white [60, 61]. [14] reports that among 13 studies of homicide arrests, 9 found racial/ethnic differences in police clearance rates consistent with the stratification hypothesis, and iv found no differences. [62] finds no victim race differences in the chances of police clearance in archival data on cyberbullying cases. [63] and [64] detect in archival data on sexual set on complaints that arrest decisions do not vary by victim race. [65] find that racial differences in clearance of sexual set on cases are attributable to black victims' disability or unwillingness to cooperate with police. While overall these results are weakly consequent with the stratification hypothesis, they practise non demonstrate constabulary bigotry. For case, it may be that greater poverty, college crime, and lack of commonage efficacy in some neighborhoods and districts with greater minority presence (east.g. [66]) limit the amount and effectiveness of police resources that can be spent on whatsoever i case.

With regards to victim gender, findings violate the stratification hypothesis. In no written report are male victims plant to be preferentially treated. [58] finds that female person survey respondents report quicker police response times in robbery and aggravated assault cases. [61] finds that homicide instance clearance is more likely with female victims. [fourteen] reports that of 11 studies that examine the effect of victim gender on homicide case clearance, five observe that cases with female person victims are more likely cleared while in 6 cases no deviation is found. [62] does not find any victim gender difference in the likelihood that a cyberbullying instance is cleared.

Data & methods

Our inquiry was approved by the Stony Brook University Human Subjects Committee (IRB), project #390584. Nearly missing children information used in prior studies are amass counts, such as numbers of girls and boys of different race and ethnicity recorded every bit missing in official statistics [8, 10, xi]. These statistics lack temporal information on the timing of disappearance and recovery of each child that is necessary for estimating daily rates of recovery. In other studies, names and demographic characteristics of missing children are extracted from online databases [12]. Online databases typically provide date of disappearance but non recovery, as cases are removed from the website when children are recovered. They thus oversample difficult-to-solve cases, and a previous report institute that fifty-fifty among those cases, not every active police record had a match [12] (see page 673). Nosotros draw from a unique dataset that contains records on all children reported missing in New York Country betwixt 2007 and 2010. The data is provided past the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS). The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not those of DCJS. Neither New York State nor DCJS assumes liability for its contents or employ thereof. The dataset includes data on the solar day a child was reported missing to the constabulary, the day the child was found or the solar day the record was terminal updated. Information technology also specifies the race and gender of missing children, as well as the circumstances nether which they went missing (eastward.g., abductions, runaway cases, etc.).

The dataset contains information for 81,136 missing episodes. We exclude 37,767 possibly invalid cases from our analysis with case counterfoil codes "missing person record determined to be invalid or no longer sought" or "purged due to failure to validate". DCJS indicated to usa that the get-go cancellation code is oft selected by agencies in true recoveries of valid missing children cases. Our results are of similar size and the same degrees of statistical significance when these cases are included in the analysis. Here we report on analyses of the remaining 43,379 missing episodes, involving 31,232 unique children. Tables 1 and ii show descriptive statistics on respectively cardinal and categorical variables used in the analysis. An important limitation these information share with other law data used in past work is that they do not differentiate Hispanic children. Whether a kid is Hispanic or not is an optional entry in missing children police force reports, and in do rarely used. When used, the corresponding race category is predominantly white. In the subsequent assay we therefore follow [eight] and [11] in dichotomizing race into blackness and non-blackness children, where not-blacks include Hispanic children. Black children brand up 40% of the children whose race is known. This is somewhat higher than the national figure of 36% [67], reflecting the larger percentage of blacks residing in New York State (18%) than in the United States as a whole (13%). Girls comprise 56% of all missing children cases in New York Land. This overrepresentation of girls is comparable to national estimates in which 53% of missing children are girls [67]. The vast majority of children in our data are somewhen recovered alive. Just, time to recovery varies significantly, and 229 children had not been recovered by the finish of our ascertainment period (terminate of 2010).

We measure duration as the number of days between the twenty-four hours the kid was reported missing and the day s/he was recovered. If a child is never found, we measure duration equally the number of days between the day the child was reported missing and the last observed day in the dataset. Episodes on average final 31 days, but duration varies profoundly, with the standard deviation being v times the hateful. Cases in which the child was found include police recoveries, cases where the kid deceased, and instances in which the child voluntarily returned domicile.

The New York State data differentiate betwixt different types of missing children cases. Past studies of missing children media coverage frequently practise non differentiate between case types [8, 10, eleven]. Nevertheless aggregate statistics are dominated past children who ran away from home, while media coverage will naturally overrepresent more spectacular cases, such as abductions. If race and gender correlate with case type, and so it is essential to command for instance blazon in assessing claims most race and gender effects on media coverage and daily recovery chances. Equally in national statistics, also in the New York State data most cases are runaways. Children who get lost or wander away are less common. Abductions are exceedingly rare.

Results

Fig 1 shows that black children are about twice equally likely as other children to remain missing by the end of our observation menses. Regarding the gender of missing children, nosotros find that missing girls are slightly more likely to remain missing by the end of our observation period than missing boys. A Thousand test finds both the racial and the gender difference statistically meaning at the 95% level.

Next, we explore whether these race and gender differences tin be explained by variation in example-specific factors. First, in that location may be ethnic / racial and gender differences in the length of time for which children are missing. The assay in Fig 1 does not differentiate amid the 99% of cases in which children were ultimately establish in terms of how quick the recovery was. To account for potential racial and gender differences in the duration that children are missing and the possibility that children who are after plant are censored as they fall exterior our ascertainment period, we utilise event history assay techniques [68]. Each episode in the consequence-history analysis starts on the day a child goes missing and ends when the case is resolved. At the start of the episode the clock is reset to 0, and then that we analyze recovery chances as a role of the number of days since the nearly contempo engagement on which a kid went missing. The event variable ‵recovered' is coded i if the episode ends with a recovery and coded 0 if the episode is correct-censored because the case was still open at the time the information was nerveless. For the 43,379 episodes, representing 31,232 unique children, Fig 2A and 2B show non-parametric Kaplan-Meier estimates of the recovery rates of black versus non-black children respectively girls versus boys [69]. Fig 2 shows that the probability that a kid is nonetheless missing by a given twenty-four hour period is consistently and significantly higher for blacks than for non-blacks at the 95% confidence level. Fig 2 likewise reveals that boys are recovered slightly more speedily than girls, and that this difference is statistically significant.

In that location are several variables that may confound these race and gender effects for which our information provide measures. Kickoff, there may be racial / indigenous differences in the age in which children go missing. Older kids are more often missing considering they leave deliberately, are more able to return if desired, and their cases may have less priority in the optics of police or the public, all of which may touch on the likelihood of recovery. The circumstances under which children go missing may likewise vary past race and gender. Runaways may tend to happen in poor neighborhoods and as a result more often concern black children. To business relationship for such instance-specific differences we regress the daily ‵hazard' or likelihood of recovery in a series of Cox proportional adventure models [seventy] on the gender and race of the missing child as well equally control variables.

Table 3 reports results from three Cox models (Models 1, 2, and 3). These models control for the age at which a child goes missing, the number of times a kid has gone missing before, and binary variables for different circumstances under which a kid goes missing. The table displays logged hazard rates and cluster-adjusted standard errors in parentheses. A positive coefficient means that the predictor variable increases the chance rate of recovery. Models one and ii reported in Table three include all episodes. Model 1 includes simply the main effects of gender and race which have our theoretical focus. Model 2 additionally includes command variables, allowing u.s. to evaluate whether the master effects of gender and race are owing to otherwise uncontrolled situational features. In Model 3, we clarify only the last episode of a kid, excluding earlier episodes involving the same child. The purpose of this model is to verify that our results exercise non depend on the disproportionate role in our estimates of a pocket-size number of children who regularly go missing. Model iv contains the same predictors as Model 3 but is a lognormal survival model instead of a Cox proportional hazard model. The coefficients are negative logged fourth dimension ratios instead of logged run a risk ratios. A positive coefficient means that the predictor variable decreases the expected time until recovery. The purpose of Model 4 is to evaluate whether the effects of race and gender depend on the assumption made most the shape of the survival function. The lognormal survival model is shown because information technology fit all-time among a range of common alternatives, including Weibull, Gompertz, loglogistic and exponential.

In each of the models in Table three the daily chances that a child is constitute given that is has so far not been found are estimated to be lower for black children than for non-black children. Also, the run a risk rate for girls is lower than for boys. The coefficient of -.27 in Model 1 suggests that the adventure charge per unit at which black children are establish is 24% (1-exp(-.27)) lower than the rate at which non-black children are found. Model ane likewise shows that girls are found at a charge per unit that is 6% lower than that of boys. Model 2 shows that these gender and race effects remain significant and of approximately the same magnitude when command variables are included. Model 3 shows that the inclusion of but the about recent episode per child does not touch on estimates. Model 4 shows that the results are robust to alternative assumptions about the baseline survival function.

The effect of age is significantly negative in Models 2–four, indicating that older children are less readily found. In analyses not shown hither we added dummy variables for dissimilar age groups, where we found that very immature children, of whom at that place are few cases, grade an exception, every bit they are the least likely to be recovered on a given day. These analyses also show that the gender and race effects practice not depend on whether age is estimated in such piecewise fashion or as a unmarried linear term. The inclusion of historic period as a predictor does not change the magnitude or direction of either the race or gender event, suggesting that race and gender differences in daily recovery chances are non due to differences in the typical age at which children get missing. The null effect of episode number in Model 2 suggests that how often a child has gone missing earlier does not impact its likelihood of recovery. The effects of the circumstances nether which a child went missing evidence that abduction cases are much less likely to be resolved by a given time than other cases. Runaway cases, cases in which a child was lost or wandered abroad, and unknown cases all have comparable daily rates of recovery.

Table 3 leaves open up the possibility that the race and gender effects on recovery rates are specific to sure example types. For example, media, public and police force attention may be greater in abduction cases, which may generate different gender and race effects. Too, runaway cases are more than often concluded with a kid returning domicile voluntarily, an outcome that family and constabulary enforcement may have less control over. To explore these possibilities, we estimated a model with control variables for each case blazon separately. The four sets of model estimates are shown in Table 4. Table 4 reveals that the outcome of race is of like magnitude in all models and statistically significant in the prediction of daily recovery in all missing child cases except abductions. The outcome of gender is of similar size in lost, runaway, and unknown cases and simply meaning in the prediction of delinquent cases. The significance levels of the effects of race and gender clearly covary with the frequency of cases in each case type category. To exam for meaning variation in the magnitude of the furnishings of race and gender across case types we estimated a joint model with interaction furnishings between race and case type and then calculated Wald, BIC and AIC statistics for goodness-of-fit comparison. None of the effects of individual interaction terms was found statistically significant. All 3 goodness-of-fit tests favor models without gender interaction effects. The AIC and Wald tests favor models with race interaction effects, while the BIC test does not.

The historic period at which a child goes missing has markedly dissimilar effects on daily recovery chances depending on the circumstances under which a kid goes missing. The positive effect of age on recovery chances of abduction cases is inconsistent with paternalistic patterns of response, whereby younger children receive greater attending and care, but consequent with the notion that older children are more capable of helping themselves out of a difficult situation.

The negative effect of age on daily recovery chances in runaway cases is consistent with the notion that older children are more than able to effectively stay away from their parents and may also signal that there is less endeavour past hosts, parents, and law enforcement to bring older children back dwelling.

Discussion

This article has presented the outset quantitative assessment of race and gender differences in missing children's recovery chances. Our analysis of historical New York State missing person cases showed that blacks on average remain missing longer and are more than likely to still be missing by the stop of our ascertainment menstruation than not-black children. The race effect was found for all missing children cases, except abductions. Yet, the issue of race on recovery in abduction cases was establish to be no weaker than the race result in other cases, and information technology is possible that the small number of abductions in the data prevented an upshot of similar magnitude from showing up.

The analysis also showed an issue of gender on recovery rates, simply this was smaller, at 6% lower rates for girls compared to boys. The outcome was simply significant for delinquent cases, just the magnitude of the effect did not significantly vary by case blazon. We conclude that the recovery chances of boys and girls are similar, with a slight overall deviation in favor of boys.

Our analysis could not place the mechanisms driving these effects. Nonetheless, we can draw some tentative conclusions regarding the theoretical mechanisms on the ground of the racial and gender effects found. In our theoretical analysis we proposed three mechanisms through which race and gender of missing children may touch on their likelihood of recovery: The greater news coverage that white girls receive may aid search efforts, the resource available for search efforts involving black children may exist more limited, and law enforcement may exert greater effort in cases involving white boys. These mechanisms unequivocally imply lower daily chances for black children to be establish while being ambiguous virtually the net event of gender. This theoretical implication is supported by the empirical analysis. The three theoretical mechanisms together practice not yield a clear hypothesis regarding the effect of gender on daily recovery chances. Missing girls are on the ane hand expected to receive more media exposure than missing boys, but on the other mitt the stratification hypothesis predicts they receive less police effort (even if data on other types of police cases do not support this). The empirical results indicate like recovery chances of girls and boys.

Limitations and time to come directions

One important limitation of the present study is that the police records it draws on do not systematically indicate the Hispanic ethnicity of missing children. Equally a result, White and Hispanic children were mixed into a single race category, even though many of the mechanisms predicting an African-American disadvantage also predict a Hispanic disadvantage. Under this assumption, the race divergence constitute in the present analysis would be interpreted every bit an underestimate, every bit it would then be stronger if Hispanics were effectively filtered out of the White category.

Another central limitation is our lack of measures of mechanisms through which race and gender differences in the recovery chances of missing children could come up about. While the findings of a considerable race consequence and a minimal gender effect are broadly consistent with our theoretical analysis, the empirical back up remains highly tentative and does not allow unambiguous interpretation. A promising direction of inquiry is identifying the mediating effect of media coverage in the human relationship betwixt race and gender and likelihood of recovery, which may help isolate the public attention mechanism. Past studies take done ecological analyses in which gender- and race-specific rates of media coverage were related to corresponding rates of children going missing [eight, 10–12, 46]. One could extend such analyses past comparing these national or country-level information with rates of missing child recovery. However, such assay would have limited causal inference potential because 1 would lack of import controls such every bit the type of missing child instance (runaway / lost / abducted) and 1 would not know if the children mentioned in the media are representative samples of underlying subpopulations. An culling individual-level arroyo is to identify news coverage of specific child names taken from official records of missing children and so compare recovery rates. [12] queried the names of 55 missing children in Louisiana State in news databases and search engines, but this did non provide sufficient power for an analysis of recovery. We attempted to scale this method using large-calibration paper databases but found that in fact media embrace very few cases and that these instances are difficult to link to identity databases. In these analyses we tried various basic search strategies in which queries combined first and last names from our records with terms like "missing" and "abducted". Our attempts generated zero matches for near missing children names, and almost all matches found were false positives. Assessing the extent to which race and gender differences in missing children's recovery chances can exist attributed to differential media attention is thus a methodological challenge that nosotros get out for hereafter research.

Future studies may also seek to provide more than direct evidence for a resources machinery driving differences in recovery rates. A limitation of the data used hither is that they lack a measure of the socio-economic background of the children, or a precise enough measure of household location that would allow an cess of the office of socio-economic status. Scholars may seek to match police records with data from other sources containing such additional measures. Such measures would let one to more directly examination to what extent race effects are produced by socio-economic differences, e.chiliad. through limits on available resources for recovery.

Finally, while the results presented here are consistent with conflict theories of crime and behavior of police theory, we have no evidence that law enforcement efforts actually vary by race or gender, as these theories would suggest. One direction for future research may be for researchers to attempt to measure out the overall share of the budget expended past police on various missing kid cases. Departments, by providing detailed case records or officer testimonies that would allow such an evaluation, could help verify that they work every bit hard for the rubber return dwelling of every missing child.

Acknowledgments

We give thanks the editor and two anonymous reviewers for very helpful comments. Nosotros thank the New York Country Division of Criminal Justice Services for sharing their missing children records with u.s.a.. This research was supported by a Social Science and Humanities Enquiry Council Insight grant to Shor (2015) and a Fund for the Advancement of the Discipline grant from the National Scientific discipline Foundation and the American Sociological Clan to Shor and Van de Rijt (2014).

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